Pakistan's energy landscape is transforming, marked by an escalating demand for natural gas across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. However, recent data from OGRA’s Petroleum Industry Report 2022-2023 reveals a concerning trend — a widening gap between this growing demand and the available supply.
The country's total demand for natural gas, measured in MMCFD (Million Cubic Feet per Day), consistently rises from FY23 to FY33. Contributors to this demand include Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL), Sui Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGC), and the Independent Systems. By FY33, these figures cap at 4,833 MMCFD.
Major entities like SNGPL, SSGC, Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MPCL), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), and Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd. (OGDCL) contribute to the total committed and anticipated supplies.
Supplies are expected to fall short, particularly in the latter years of the forecast. The demand-supply scenario incorporates a mix of indigenous and imported natural gas sources. Committed and anticipated supply totals 1,337 MMCFD by FY33. Considering both indigenous and imported sources, the total supply is projected to reach 4,729 MMCFD by FY33.
The gap between the total constrained demand and the total supply with TAPI, IP, PSGP, and LNG is notable, reaching a maximum of 1,774 MMCFD in FY32 and 103 MMCFD in FY33. Excluding the contributions from TAPI, IP, PSGP, and LNG widens the gap further, reaching 3,495 MMCFD by FY33. If the current supplies of natural gas, such as indigenous sources and imported LNG, were combined, the gap would be 2,195 MMCFD by FY33.
Pakistan's natural gas sector is at a critical juncture as demand consistently outpaces supply. Strategic interventions and collaborative efforts between the government, energy companies, and international partners are paramount to ensuring a stable and sustainable future for the country's energy sector.
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